Publicaciones

Artículos, libros y capítulos del grupo ERA

Artículos en revistas

Arroyave, J.P.; Molina, A.R.; Rotter-Zimbrón, M.; Carmona-Díaz, G. (2026)

Uncertainty amplifies the impact of scarcity on delay of gratification: evidence from a serious game experiment

10.1007/s11238-026-10141-8

Individuals facing economic scarcity often struggle with delaying gratification, a pattern typically attributed to cognitive load, self-control, or risk preferences. How- ever, the role of uncertainty remains underexplored. This study tests the preregistered hypothesis that uncertainty intensifies the negative effects of scarcity on delay of grat- ification. In a between-subjects experiment with Colombian participants (N = 230; M age = 24.4; 58% female), we used a web-based serious game simulating economic decision-making under resource scarcity or abundance. After condition exposure, participants received one of three interventions: (1) direct resource provision, (2) insur- ance to reduce uncertainty, or (3) no intervention. Delay of gratification was assessed using real monetary incentives aligned with participants’ economic choices. Results showed that participants in abundance were significantly more likely to delay gratifica- tion than those in scarcity. Among scarcity-exposed participants, uncertainty reduction significantly improved delay of gratification, matching the effect of resource provi- sion. In contrast, participants in abundance were unaffected by uncertainty-reducing interventions. These findings suggest that uncertainty amplifies the effects of scarcity rather than influencing future-oriented decision-making universally. Reducing uncer- tainty may thus serve as a scalable behavioural intervention to support future-oriented decision-making in economically vulnerable populations.

Ver PDF